After reading Daily Hodl’s piece about how Russia is about to ditch US dollars for Bitcoin, I decided to investigate the matter. The tweet by Vladislav Ginko implying that the Russian government is about to invest most of it foreign currency reserve holdings into Bitcoin, turned out to be a decoy. Kremlin is about to […]
“The Bart” is a commonly known pattern in Bitcoin charts, to the point of having become a meme on Twitter and reddit. It’s a figure formed by sudden moves in Bitcoin price, followed by period of relative calm. “The Bart” has become a joke among Bitcoin critics, who point to the Bart as evidence that […]
In the first part of this long post, I’ve identified three instances where Bitcoin was used for transactions, namely: pizza, drugs, and ICOs. I’ve postulated that the transactional nature of Bitcoin doesn’t confer it any long-term value, but instead creates speculative bubbles due to long transaction periods, and the price inelasticity of demand for transactions. […]
Despite all the hype, speculation and FOMO, nobody got close to a credible valuation model for Bitcoin. Those who, like Tom Lee, claim that “Bitcoin is worth X dollars”, usually simply run a regression of Bitcoin’s price against a few variables, and pretend that correlation equals causation. To come up with a valuation model for […]
“Pomp”, a fictional character that appeared to me in a dream, shouldn’t be confused with Anthony Pompliano, whom I’ve never met, spoken to, or interacted with in any other way than just screwing around his Twitter handle until he banned me.
Enough with the pessimism. Bitcoin is down 80% from all time highs, we get it. So what? It has happened so many times before, and will happen again. You can’t have outsized returns without outsized volatility. We’re still on track for $1,000,000 by 2022, as I predicted in mid-2018, and here are the reasons for […]